New dataset allows for more accurate estimates of ice loss at Greenland’s glacier fronts

Published 13-05-2025

New dataset published in Scientific Data presents more accurate estimates of frontal ablation of tidewater glaciers in Greenland across seasons, which is useful in computer models predicting for instance sea level rise.

Glacier in Greenland (GEUS).

One step forward and two steps back, a slight shiver and a big crack – the glaciers of Greenland do a dance with steps often a mystery to science. But study by study, science is unlocking knowledge about these beautiful rivers of ice, allowing for increasingly accurate predictions of ice loss, sea level rise, marine temperature changes and nutrient flows. All things that follow, when fresh water is fed by the Greenland ice sheet into the surrounding oceans.

A new dataset published open access in Scientific Data presents new insights into the so-called frontal ablation of 49 of Greenland’s more than 200 tidewater glaciers – in other words, how much ice loss the glaciers that flows into the oceans and fjords experience at the front through melting at the surface, melting in the ocean and the break-off of icebergs.

“The novelty of the dataset is that it combines only observational data to derive frontal ablation compared to previous studies that contain some modelled components. This allows us to more accurately determine how much ice is lost, as we currently assume that all solid ice discharge is lost,” says Dominik Fahrner, Postdoc at the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and lead author of the paper.

Greenland’s tidewater glaciers have been contributing 30-60 % of the total annual mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through ice loss at the front of the glaciers alone. Although the movements of the glacier’s fronts (called terminus) affect how much ice is lost, there are few in-situ measurements and most studies are limited to few geographical locations or include shorter time series, leaving much in the dark. But with the new dataset, the keyhole through which we may peek at the glacier’s dance has widened.

“This work has been a great collaborative effort that started as part of the Greenland Ice Sheet Ocean Science Network (GRISO), and we hope that the dataset and processing chain, which are both open source, will be valuable for the larger community,” says Dominik Fahrner.

The dataset provides three-monthly frontal ablation estimates for the 49 tidewater glaciers included based on solid ice discharge and glacier front position changes for each glacier. The results highlight that frontal ablation can differ significantly from solid ice discharge. On a seasonal basis, frontal ablation can exceed ice discharge by more than 50% at some glaciers during the summer retreat phase, but conversely ice discharge can exceed frontal ablation by a similar magnitude during winter advance. The study also supports previous results that solid ice discharge underestimates mass loss by ~4 %.

The dataset is relevant for scientists in their efforts to better understand processes that occur at the boundary between the ocean and the glacier, and to improve computer models that predict future ice loss and all the things that follow.

“The dataset is an important stepping stone. Now that we have accurate measurements of ice loss at the glacier front, we will investigate the relationship between ocean warming and ice loss in Greenland. This will, in the long run, allow us to reduce uncertainties in future predictions of sea level rise,” says Dominik Fahrner.


Figure: Annual mean ice discharge and frontal ablation. (A) Annual mean solid ice discharge (green) vs. annual mean terminus mass change (TMC) estimates (yellow) for all glaciers investigated in this study. Circle size indicates annual mean frontal ablation. Aggregated line plot showing three-month average frontal ablation estimates (purple) vs solid ice discharge (blue) with respective 95 % confidence intervals computed over the study period 1988–2018. For more details, see the figure here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-025-04948-3/figures/6 

Dominik Fahrner, Postdoc at the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and lead author of the paper published in Scientific Data, looking at the data.

CISP

The research was in part funded by CISP – Center for Ice Sheet and Sea Level Prediction. CISP is funded by the NOVO Nordisk Foundation under the Challenge Programme 2023 - Grant number NNF23OC00807040.
https://cisp.dtu.dk/

2025 is the International Year of Glacier’s Preservation

The UN has declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier's Preservation, and GEUS will share insights into how we contribute to research into glaciers on GEUS' LinkedIn page throughout the year.

For more information on the International Year of Glacier’s Preservation and the World Day of Glaciers, visit eng.geus.dk

Research article

A Frontal Ablation Dataset for 49 Tidewater Glaciers in Greenland,
by Dominik Fahrner, Donald A. Slater, Aman KC, Claudia Cenedese, David A. Sutherland, Ellyn Enderlin, M. Femke de Jong, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Michael Wood, Peter Nienow, Sophie Nowicki and Till J. W. Wagner.
Published in Scientific Data, Sci Data 12, 601 (2025), 10 April 2025.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04948-3 

Dominik Richard Fahrner
Postdoc
Glaciology and Climate
Malene David Jensen-Juul
Special Consultant
Press and Communication

Glacier ABC

Frontal ablation – ice loss at the front of the glacier, compromised of iceberg calving, submarine melting and subaerial melting at the glacier front (terminus).

Glacier – from French but originates from the Latin word ‘glacies’, which means ‘ice’ or ‘ice fields’. Glaciers are often described as ‘rivers of ice’, underlining their dynamic nature.

Solid ice discharge – Measurement of how much ice flows through a virtual gate, placed approximately 5 km upstream of the glacier front. We assume that all ice that flows through that gate is lost.

Terminus – a glacier’s front.

Tidewater glacier – a glacier that ends in an ocean or fjord (or any body of fluent water). Tidewater glaciers can calve ice bergs. Continuous glacier retreat can over time affect how many glaciers are tidewater glaciers.

You can learn more about the processes that makes up the ice mass balance equation of the Greenland ice sheet at promice.org