In this project the record of glacier variability and oceanographic changes is extended beyond the past 20–30 years by analysing marine sediment cores from the vicinity of marine Greenland glacier termini. These sediment cores have been retrieved during cruises conducted in 2009–2014 from fjords around Greenland.
By comparing such a large set of glacier and ocean reconstructions from different settings around Greenland we investigate the influence of oceanographic changes, such as inflow of warm water from the Atlantic Ocean and sea ice variability, on glacier stability – including the timescales involved in change - and gain understanding of the role of the glaciological and bathymetrical setting on outlet glacier changes.
The extended glaciological time series will serve as a tool for tuning an advanced numerical glacier model. Calibration of the model is carried out by running the model for the time period for which the extended glaciological time series has been constructed.
Here, the reconstructed ocean, air, and sea ice variability will be used as fixed input parameters and the model parameters can be adjusted.
Once the model demonstrates the ability to capture the observed glaciological variations (simulate the recorded changes), we will have increased confidence in the reliability of its prognostic assessments. This will enable a relatively more reliable prediction of future mass loss and changes in sea level.